Session : “Modelling social-ecological systems: methods and tools for scenario development and prediction”

Conveners: Jan-Jaap Poos, Jörn Schmidt, Olivier Thébaud and Ingrid van Putten

Coupled process understanding of marine socio-ecological systems is attracting growing attention and debate, demonstrating that this is an important research area. Formal methods and tools for scenario analysis are increasingly being used in support of ecosystem-based management of natural resources, including marine fisheries. In addition, there is a growing requirement for these methods and tools to enable the evaluation of alternative decision rules that fully encompass (i) the dynamics of marine social-ecological systems and transition phases associated with management implementation, and (ii) multiple economic, social and ecological objectives of management. While many studies focus on the exploration of possible futures, there is also a need to develop so-called normative scenarios, which consider objectives for the management of ocean uses, and possible pathways for these objectives to be met in the future.

This session focussed on the presentation and discussion of recent advances and key scientific challenges in the formal modelling of marine socioecological systems, and alternative management scenarios.

The session addressed the IMBeR grand challenge II, by examining scenarios of how social and governance systems operate and interact over different scales to determine human response to change, and feedback effects on ecosystem structure and functioning. It also addressed grand challenge III by considering the ways in which such scenarios can effectively be developed at the interface of science, society and policy.

The session combined oral presentations and open discussion with participants. A synthesis manuscript co-authored by the conveners and developed in collaboration with the speakers will be produced based on the session.

Available Presentations (.pdf); click on the title

• Walking backwards into the future ; Beth Fulton
• Foresighting to guide scientific investment and preparation for a disrupted future ; Alistair Hobday
• The future of High Seas governance under climate change ; Colette Wabnitz
• Material Flow Analysis as a Circular economy tool to address the future stakes of fishery dependent costal socio-ecological systems (Speed talk – Poster); Raphaëla le Gouvello
• Tools for credible decision making; an analysis of successful tool application in ecosystem based management ; Mark Dickey-Collas
• Providing integrated total catch advice for the management of mixed fisheries with an ecoviabilityapproach ; Florence Briton
• There is carbon on the shelf! Quantifying and valuing coastal and shelf sea carbon for policy making and management purposes ; Silke Kroeger
• A global fisheries model with dynamic regulation: implications for future marine catches ; Kim Scherrer
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for fisheries and aquaculture in Europe ; Katell Hamon
• From data compilation to model validation: A comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise ; Vidette McGregor
• A fishery system approach using socio-ecological model: a case study of Fujian swimming crab fishery in China ; Zein Chen
• Making the Most of Mental Models: Advancing the Methodology for Mental Model Elicitation and Documentation with Expert Stakeholders ; Kelsey LaMere
• Overcoming challenges in conducting management strategy evaluation in a complex multi-species, multi-sector, multi-gear, and multi-government fishery system, with application to bycatch harvest policies for Pacific halibut in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands ; Carey McGilliard
• Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century ; Carolyn Lundquist
• Ecosystem services assessment from an ecological perspective (Speed talk – Poster) ; Laura Basconi